In all of Alberta’s 104-year history just four parties have governed the province. Each was replaced by a challenger perceived to be to the right of the incumbent party: the Liberals by the United Farmers of Alberta the UFA by the Social Credit and the Socreds by the Conservatives who have now been in power since 1971 — 38 years.

That fact alone should make Premier Ed Stelmach and his party worried about the Wildrose Alliance a new party  that through the weekend elected intelligent articulate photogenic 38-year-old Danielle Smith like its leader.

Another fact that should frighten Alberta’s Big Blue Machine: More than 8000 Alliance party members voted in Saturday’s contest between Ms. Smith and Calgary chiropractor Mark Dyrholm. That’s almost double the number that voted last winter in the provincial Liberals’ leadership contest and the Liberals are Alberta’s official opposition.

The Alliance is perceived to be to the right of the floundering bumbling overspending Tories. To add to the Conservatives’ troubles since the departure of popular premier Ralph Klein three years ago voters have seen them as a gaggle of out-of-their-depth bumpkins who have careened from one policy mistake to the next.

The Tories under Mr. Stelmach lurched from a major misstep on oil and gas royalties — they sought to raise them by as much as 50% — to clumsy announcements of hospital bed closures to talk of reinstituting rent controls to a vacillating approach toward the erection of high-voltage power lines round Edmonton that has pleased neither nearby residents nor utility companies.

While Mr. Klein used to boast that he had the province on autopilot Mr. Stelmach’s approach to governing seems more bunny-in-the-headlights. He leaves the impression of not knowing which way to jump even as impending calamity barrels down on him.

Take the Tories’ approach to cutbacks at the province’s largest psychiatric hospital. Two months ago they announced 500 bed closures before they had consulted with mental health experts about the feasibility of community support programs absorbing so many unstable and often violent patients. Last month the Stelmach government seemed to relent and hint at keeping the beds open. Now it appears to have reconsidered yet again. Apparently to avoid appearing to be caving into special interests the media and public health unions the Tory Cabinet now seems intent on following through on its initial bed-closure threats.

But perhaps its worst fault was presuming that most ordinary Albertans were anti oil company. Nearly two years ago the Stelmach government announced major tax increases on oil and gas extraction claiming that the provincial treasury — and by extension the province’s citizens — was being cheated by the industry. But while the government had apparently forgotten the reason for the province’s decade-long boom the middle-class voters who advocate the Tories had not — they were dumbfounded. Coming hand-in-hand with the beginning of the recession the tax increase was case of choking the golden goose. The royalty decision drove resource explorers out of the province and propelled the downturn faster still.

In last year’s provincial election the Tories serene managed to win a majority except only since voters from all parties uninspired by the offerings of any of them stayed home in droves.

Ms. Smith’s biggest task will be containing the zealous socially conservative wing of her party who have been the core of the Wildrose’s support until the influx of new members attracted by the leadership race. And she will have to assemble a roster of candidates who can best local Tory MLAs many of whom are accustomed to winning outright majorities in their ridings election behind election.

But we see Ms. Smith’s combination of fiscal conservatism and libertarian social policies as a good fit for Alberta. If nothing else her presence will force the Tories to rediscover their small-c roots.